The 40-point mark – the magic quantity that supposedly ensures Premier League survival. But with such a compelling relegation scrap this yr, we need to ask, is it nonetheless true?
After becoming a member of the membership in December, West Brom supervisor Alan Pardew stated he would deal with himself to a glass of wine when the Baggies reached the 40-point mark, though he added that security “may be a lot less this year – 35 or 36 points”. (They’re presently backside on 20 points, by the way in which).
BBC Sport and knowledge analysts Gracenote Sports have examined the historical past of the relegation battle to discover out who you’ll be able to anticipate to be within the backside three come the tip of the season.
What does historical past inform us?
Looking at stats for the reason that Premier League changed into a 20-team league in 1995-96, on solely 4 events has a workforce wanted 40 points or extra to keep up.
The most up-to-date instance was in 2011, when 18th positioned Birmingham City went down with 39 points and Midlands rivals Wolves stayed up with 40.
Here’s what else we discovered:
- The lowest variety of points to assure survival was 31 points in 2010, as 18th positioned Burnley went down with 30 points.
- The highest points complete to survive would have been 43 in 2003, with 18th positioned West Ham relegated with 42 points.
On common the variety of points to assure survival within the final 22 seasons has been 36.6 points.
Fact: 40 points as a normal rule is a fantasy. But stick with us, as there’s predictions to come.
So the place did this fantasy come from?
Probably from a special Premier League period, 20 years in the past.
Coventry stayed up in 17th with 41 points, relegating Sunderland in 18th with 40, in 1996-97. The subsequent season, 1997-98, Bolton went down on objective distinction in 18th, whereas Everton stayed up in 17th – each ending with 40 points.
Gracenote says that taking averages over five-year intervals, the points wanted for Premier League survival has dropped from 37 in 1996-2000, to 35 points now.
And what about this yr’s relegation scrap?
With 11 video games to go, Gracenote has 11 teams within the relegation battle and has calculated the prospect of every workforce being relegated.
That’s from Bournemouth in 10th, down to backside facet West Brom, whereas the remainder of the Premier League’s high 9 sides all have a lower than 1% likelihood of happening.
Already this season, eight Premier League teams have modified supervisor – Watford, Crystal Palace, Everton, Leicester City, Stoke, Swansea, West Brom and West Ham.
Gracenote makes use of its Euro Club Index rating of top-flight golf equipment after which runs season simulations a million instances to estimate the prospect of every workforce being relegated.
So what number of points shall be wanted?
Using the identical method, Gracenote says 38 points “is more likely than not” to be sufficient, giving a 62% of staying up, however something beneath that and it’s a lower than 50% likelihood.
“At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated,” says Simon Gleave, head of research at Gracenote Sports.
Perhaps Pardew will not be getting that cup of wine in any case…