Home / News / Sports News / The odds must be loopy: Early Vegas over/unders have these five teams all wrong – Buster Olney Blog

The odds must be loopy: Early Vegas over/unders have these five teams all wrong – Buster Olney Blog

Back once I coated the Padres, my brother visited within the midst of spring coaching, and that is the way it got here to move that a few Vermonters from a city of 400 individuals rolled down The Strip in Las Vegas, the place San Diego was to play a few exhibition video games.

“This place is great!” he mentioned, amazed by the lights. “I know I’m coming back here again.”

Fast-forward two hours. My brother’s playing cash was gone, having been drained by a very unfortunate slot machine. “This place [stinks],” he mentioned. “I’m never doing that again.”

A second akin to that requires empathy from an older brother. But I simply laughed in his face. “How do you think they built all those casinos?” I requested pointedly.

All these lights recommend the House has a reasonably good concept of what it’s doing, which is why the betting strains and over/unders for Major League Baseball are at all times fascinating. The underlying logic has to be sound; lots of money rides on it.

But yearly, some over/below numbers appear … off. Among those generated recently by CG Technology, a Las Vegas sportsbook operator, listed below are some that appear off to me.

Remember these shiny lights and large buildings and the place they got here from.

Washington Nationals: 91½ wins

Last yr, the Nationals piled up 97 wins, and all of a very powerful gamers are again for this season: the late-inning relievers who will observe Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez; and mashers Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon. Additionally, left fielder Adam Eaton has totally recovered from his knee damage. The National League East has improved for the reason that begin of 2017, with the Phillies, Braves and Mets all making progress, however the Marlins might be horrible. It would be a shocker if the Nationals did not win 92 video games.

Baltimore Orioles: 77½ wins

The Orioles in all probability haven’t gotten as a lot credit score as they deserve for what they achieved from 2012 to 2016, for a way they plugged holes and overcame an absence of beginning pitching depth. But that all appeared to catch as much as them final season, when their rotation carried out terribly and the Orioles gained 75 video games.

As camps open this week, the Orioles haven’t added any beginning pitching; they haven’t fastened the issues. Meanwhile, the Yankees have gotten higher, and the Red Sox’s offense will virtually actually enhance, particularly if Boston provides J.D. Martinez. Baltimore can be more likely to commerce Manny Machado earlier than the July 31 deadline. As a outcome, 78 wins looks as if a stretch.

Milwaukee Brewers: 81½ wins

The Brewers surged to 86 wins final season, staying within the playoff race till late within the season, and since then, they added Christian Yelich in a commerce and spent $80 million on Lorenzo Cain. Meanwhile, the Pirates have taken a step again, and the Reds haven’t taken a giant step ahead but. They nonetheless want a beginning pitcher, they usually’ll in all probability land one, they usually be ok with the possibilities of their younger arms augmenting the workers this yr. A efficiency of at the very least 82 victories appears greater than possible.

Texas Rangers: 78½ wins

The Astros landed Justin Verlander for a few months and gained the World Series, then dealt for Gerrit Cole. The Angels bought the golden ticket referred to as Shohei Ohtani, then picked up Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler for a lineup that’ll embody Mike Trout and Justin Upton. The Mariners made a transfer for Dee Gordon. The Rangers, however, have had a really quiet winter, aside from including Mike Minor. Given the energy of the remainder of the American League West, you wouldn’t blame the Rangers in the event that they saved their monetary and prospect ammunition for one more time, when the situations for contending within the division might be extra favorable. The Rangers gained 78 video games final season, and given the energy of the division, it’ll be troublesome for them to succeed in that once more.

Miami Marlins: 64½ wins

The Marlins traded away virtually all of the very best a part of their staff: their offense. Giancarlo Stanton, Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Gordon are gone, and it appears greater than seemingly that catcher J.T. Realmuto will observe. The run manufacturing will be horrible this yr, in all probability, and the pitching in all probability gained’t be a lot totally different than in 2017, when Miami completed 26th in ERA. It’s a horrible staff, by design, and if the Marlins keep away from 100 losses, Don Mattingly ought to be within the working for NL Manager of the Year.

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